Tucson Mortgages Home Loan News 6-6-2016

By Todd Abelson NMLS #180858 on .

Weekly Review: week of May 30, 2016
Mortgage Rate Forecast with Chart
Economic Calendar – week of June 6, 2016
Federal Reserve FOMC Meeting Schedule & Current Rate Hike Probability

Weekly Review

The major stock market indexes were mixed during a holiday-shortened trading week while bond prices slowly trended higher for most of the week before exploding higher following the May jobs report on Friday.

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics released an extremely weak May jobs report that could make it very difficult for the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates anytime soon.  The U.S. economy created the fewest number of jobs in more than five years during May as Nonfarm Payrolls increased by only a paltry 38,000 jobs, badly missing the consensus forecast of 155,000 jobs.  Nonfarm Private Payrolls were even worse at 25,000 jobs versus the consensus forecast of 160,000.  The Unemployment Rate fell to 4.7% as more workers dropped out of the labor force.  The Unemployment Rate consensus estimate was 4.9%.  There is still no sign of any meaningful wage growth as Average Hourly Earnings increased by five cents, or 0.2% to match the consensus estimate.  The Average Workweek held steady at 34.4 hours to match the consensus forecast.

One of the reasons for the huge miss according to the Labor Department was a month-long Verizon strike that had depressed employment growth by 34,000 jobs.  Verizon workers, who were considered unemployed because they did not receive a salary during the payrolls survey week, returned to their jobs this past Wednesday and are expected to provide a rebound for the June Employment Situation Summary report.  However, even without the Verizon strike, payrolls would have increased by only 72,000 as the goods producing sector, which includes mining and manufacturing, lost 36,000 jobs, the most since February 2010.

The civilian labor force participation rate fell by 0.2% to 62.6%.  The rate has declined by 0.4% over the past two months, offsetting gains in the first quarter.  The employment-population ratio was unchanged at 59.7%.  The number of persons employed part time for economic reasons increased by 468,000 to 6.4 million in May, after showing little movement since November.  These individuals, who would have preferred full-time employment, were working part time because their hours had been cut back or because they were unable to find a full-time job.

There were 1.7 million persons marginally attached to the labor force in May, little changed from a year earlier.  These individuals were not in the labor force, wanted and were available for work, and had looked for a job sometime in the prior 12 months.  They were not counted as unemployed because they had not searched for work in the four weeks preceding the survey.  Among the marginally attached, there were 538,000 discouraged workers in May.  Discouraged workers are persons not currently looking for work because they believe no jobs are available for them.

In housing news, the S&P/Case-Shiller 20-city Home Price Index showed home prices continued to rise in 20 major cities during March with a +0.85% increase month-on-month and a 5.43% increase year-over-year.  This surpassed the consensus estimate of a 5.1% year-over-year increase and suggests the housing market remains robust.

Elsewhere, the Commerce Department reported Construction Spending plunged 1.8% in April after a 1.5% gain in March to record the largest monthly decline in five years.  Declines of 1.5% in housing, 3.1% in apartment construction, 1.5% in commercial construction and 2.8% in government projects were the primary reasons for the unexpected drop in overall spending.  Economists had forecast a gain of 0.5%.  Still, the declines result in total construction at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $1.13 trillion in April, up 4.5% from a year ago.

As for mortgages, the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) released their latest Mortgage Application Data for the week ending May 20th showing the overall seasonally adjusted Market Composite Index fell 4.1%.  The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index decreased 5.0%, while the Refinance Index decreased 4.0%.  Overall, the refinance portion of mortgage activity increased to 54.3% of total applications from 53.7%.  The adjustable-rate mortgage share of activity decreased to 5.0% from 5.7% of total applications.  According to the MBA, the average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balance remained unchanged from 3.85%.

For the week, the FNMA 3.0% coupon bond gained 64.1 basis points to end at $102.89 while the 10-year Treasury yield decreased 14.9 basis points to end at 1.702%.  Stocks ended the week with the Dow Jones Industrial Average losing 66.16 points to end at 17,807.06.  The NASDAQ Composite Index gained 9.01 points to close at 4,942.52, and the S&P 500 Index added 0.07 points to close at 2,099.13.

Year to date, and exclusive of any dividends, the Dow Jones Industrial Average has gained 2.15%, the NASDAQ Composite Index has lost 1.31%, and the S&P 500 Index has gained 2.63%.  This past week, the national average 30-year mortgage rate fell to 3.62% from 3.72% while the 15-year mortgage rate decreased to 2.92% from 2.99%.  The 5/1 ARM mortgage rate rose to 3.00% from 2.99%.  FHA 30-year rates declined to 3.25% from 3.30% while Jumbo 30-year rates decreased to 3.65% from 3.73%.

 

Mortgage Rate Forecast with Chart

For the week, the FNMA 30-year 3.0% coupon bond ($102.89, +64.1 bp) traded within a wider 86 basis point range between a weekly intraday high of $102.94 and a weekly intraday low of $102.08 before closing at $102.89 on Friday.

After opening near the 50-day moving average support line, the bond blasted higher following the release of a miserable jobs report that will most likely prevent a Fed rate hike on June 15 and possibly one on July 27.  The bond is now approaching resistance defined by the April 11 high of $103.00 and has yet to become “overbought” so we could see some upward follow-through to this level as the slow stochastic oscillator shows strong upward momentum.  Short-term support can be found at the halfway point in Friday’s candlestick at approximately $102.68 while stronger support is found at the 25-day moving average at $102.46.

This week the economic calendar is rather bare of meaningful releases that could move the bond market.  In the absence of news, technical factors may play a stronger role in market dynamics.  The bond should continue higher to challenge overhead resistance at $103.00, but it would probably take a downturn in the stock market for the bond to break above this level.  Should a breakout occur, we would see a slight improvement in mortgage rates.  However, if the bond is turned away from the $103 level, rates could slightly deteriorate.

Chart:  FNMA 30-Year 3.0% Coupon Bond

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Economic Calendar – for the Week of June 6, 2016

The economic calendar slows down this coming week with just a few reports likely to attract investor attention.  Economic reports having the greatest potential impact on the financial markets are highlighted in bold.

 

Date Time

ET

Event /Report /Statistic For Market Expects Prior
Jun 07 08:30 Revised 1st Quarter Productivity Qtr. 1 -0.6% -1.0%
Jun 07 08:30 Revised 1st Quarter Unit Labor Costs Qtr. 1 4.0% 4.1%
Jun 07 15:00 Consumer Credit April $18.5B $29.6B
Jun 08 07:00 MBA Mortgage Index 06/04 NA -4.1%
Jun 08 10:00 JOLTS – Job Openings Apr NA 5.757M
Jun 08 10:30 Crude Oil Inventories 06/04 NA -1.366M
Jun 09 08:30 Initial Jobless Claims 06/04 265K 267K
Jun 09 08:30 Continuing Jobless Claims 05/28 NA 2172K
Jun 09 10:00 Wholesale Inventories April 0.1% 0.1%
Jun 10 10:00 Prelim. Univ. of Mich. Consumer Sentiment June 94.0 94.7
Jun 10 14:00 Treasury Budget May NA -$84.1B

 

 

 

Upcoming Federal Reserve FOMC Meeting Schedule & Rate Hike Probability **

June 2016 14-15, (Tuesday-Wednesday)* 4% Chance
July 2016 26-27, (Tuesday-Wednesday) 31% Chance
September 2016 20-21, (Tuesday-Wednesday) * 44% Chance
November 2016 1-2, (Tuesday-Wednesday) 45% Chance
December 2016 20-21 (Tuesday-Wednesday)* 61% Chance
February 2017 01/31-02/01 (Tuesday-Wednesday)* 64% Chance

 

* Meeting associated with a Summary of Economic Projections and a press conference by the Chairman.

** Probability generated from the CME Group FedWatch tool based on the 30-day Fed Funds futures prices.

Tucson Mortgages Home Loan News 5-30-2016

By Todd Abelson NMLS #180858 on .

Weekly Review: week of May 23, 2016
Mortgage Rate Forecast with Chart
Economic Calendar – week of May 30, 2016
Federal Reserve FOMC Meeting Schedule & Current Rate Hike Probability

Weekly Review

Bond prices and yields were nearly unchanged for the week while the stock market enjoyed broad-based gains on generally positive economic news led by an upward revision to the first-quarter estimate of gross domestic product (GDP) as well as strong housing data.

The Commerce Department reported their “second” estimate of real Gross Domestic Product (the value of the goods and services produced by the nation’s economy less the value of the goods and services used up in production, adjusted for price changes) increased at an annual rate of 0.8% in the first quarter of 2016.  This estimate was revised higher from the initial 0.5% reading, but was just below the consensus forecast of 0.9%.

The gain was attributed to a jump in home building expenditures and rising business inventories.  However, the 0.8% reading marked the weakest advance since the year-earlier 0.6% gain, giving some investors some pause for concern.

Also, the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta raised its forecast for 2nd quarter GDP growth to 2.9% from 2.5%, largely as a result of an international trade report showing net exports will contribute more to growth in the current quarter than previously forecast.

New home sales in April rose to the highest level in eight years at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 619,000 units while the median price of a new house rose to $321,100 – a record high and nearly a 10% increase year-over-year.

Sales increased in three of the four main homebuilding regions, with the Midwest region lagging the other three regions.  New home inventory remains at a very low 4.7 month supply.  This report indicates there is bottled up demand right now in the housing market, which is a promising sign for the economy in the months to come.

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Elsewhere, the Federal Housing Finance Agency reported their FHFA Housing Price Index showed home prices rose more than expected in March to 0.7%, exceeding the previous six-month average of 0.5%.

In housing, the National Association of Realtors reported their seasonally adjusted Pending Home Sales Index soared 5.1% in April to 116.3, the highest level since 117.4 in February 2006.  Regionally, Pending Sales rose 11.4% in the West, 6.8% in the South and 1.2% in the Northeast.  The Midwest region couldn’t keep up with a 0.6% sales decline.  Overall, this was another very strong housing report showing Pending Home Sales increased 4.6% from a year ago.

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In the world of mortgages, the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) released their latest Mortgage Application Data for the week ending May 20th showing the overall seasonally adjusted Market Composite Index increased 2.3%.  The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index increased 5.0%, while the Refinance Index increased 0.4%.  Overall, the refinance portion of mortgage activity decreased to 53.7% of total applications from 54.6%.  The adjustable-rate mortgage share of activity increased to 5.7% from 5.5% of total applications.  According to the MBA, the average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balance increased to 3.85% from 3.82%.

Federal Reserve officials continued making public comments during the week on their outlooks for future rate hikes and these continue to make an impact on the financial markets.  San Francisco Fed President and non-FOMC voter John Williams repeated his comments from May 17 saying he sees two or three rate hikes during 2016 followed by three or four rate hikes in 2017.

St. Louis Fed President and FOMC voter James Bullard stated a June or July interest-rate hike is not set in stone, although labor data appears to support a rate hike.  Bullard is one of the more hawkish members of the FOMC.  Philadelphia Fed President and non-FOMC voter Patrick Harker stated that two to three rate hikes could be appropriate in 2016.  Fed Chair Janet Yellen said she believed growth and the strengthening of the labor market would continue, and in that case, “it will be appropriate for the Fed to gradually and cautiously increase rates over time in the coming months.  The economy is continuing to improve.  Growth looks to be picking up.”

For the week, the FNMA 3.0% coupon bond gained 1.6 basis points to end at $102.25 while the 10-year Treasury yield increased 0.7 of one basis point to end at 1.851%.  Stocks ended the week with the Dow Jones Industrial Average gaining 372.28 points to end at 17,873.22.  The NASDAQ Composite Index gained 163.95 points to close at 4,933.51, and the S&P 500 Index added 46.74 points to close at 2,099.06.

Year to date, and exclusive of any dividends, the Dow Jones Industrial Average has gained 2.51%, the NASDAQ Composite Index has lost 1.50%, and the S&P 500 Index has gained 2.63%.  This past week, the national average 30-year mortgage rate fell to 3.72% from 3.73% while the 15-year mortgage rate increased to 2.99% from 2.98%.  The 5/1 ARM mortgage rate declined to 2.99% from 3.03%.  FHA 30-year rates were unchanged at 3.30% while Jumbo 30-year rates decreased to 3.73% from 3.74%.

 

Mortgage Rate Forecast with Chart

For the week, the FNMA 30-year 3.0% coupon bond ($102.25, +1.6 bp) traded within a narrower 38 basis point range between a weekly intraday high of $102.38 and a weekly intraday low of $102.00 before closing at $102.25 on Friday.

The bond dipped down for a test of support on Wednesday at the 100-day moving average, currently at $102.10, then bounced higher for a test of a triple layer of overhead resistance on Thursday and Friday.  These resistance levels are located at the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level ($102.35), the 50-day moving average ($102.39) and the 25-day moving average ($102.405).  The slow stochastic oscillator continues to trend lower toward the oversold line indicating a loss of momentum.

This coming week is loaded with economic reports that could significantly impact the mortgage bond market, so technical signals may take a back seat to economic data.  If the data is favorable for bonds, we could see mortgage bonds break above the tough triple layer of resistance for a slight improvement in rates.  If the data is unfavorable, we could see bonds fall through support for a slight worsening in rates.

Chart:  FNMA 30-Year 3.0% Coupon Bond

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Economic Calendar – for the Week of May 30, 2016

 

The economic calendar features the Personal Income and Spending report for April that includes the Core PCE Prices Index, one of the Federal Reserve’s favorite measures of inflation, and the Employment Situation Summary for May.  Economic reports having the greatest potential impact on the financial markets are highlighted in bold.

 

Date Time

ET

Event /Report /Statistic For Market Expects Prior
May 31 08:30 Personal Income Apr 0.4% 0.4%
May 31 08:30 Personal Spending Apr 0.7% 0.1%
May 31 08:30 Core PCE Prices Apr 0.2% 0.1%
May 31 09:00 Case-Shiller 20-city Index Mar 5.1% 5.4%
May 31 09:45 Chicago Purchasing Managers Index May 50.9 50.4
May 31 10:00 Consumer Confidence May 96.2 94.2
Jun 01 07:00 MBA Mortgage Index 05/28 NA NA
Jun 01 08:15 ADP Employment Change May 180,000 156,000
Jun 01 10:00 ISM Index May 50.4 50.8
Jun 01 10:00 Construction Spending Apr 0.5% 0.3%
Jun 01 14:00 Fed’s Beige Book Jun NA NA
Jun 02 07:30 Challenger Job Cuts May NA 5.8%
Jun 02 08:30 Initial Jobless Claims 05/28 268,000 268,000
Jun 02 08:30 Continuing Jobless Claims 05/21 NA 2163K
Jun 02 11:00 Crude Oil Inventories 5/28 NA -4.226M
Jun 03 08:30 Nonfarm Payrolls May 155,000 160,000
Jun 03 08:30 Nonfarm Private Payrolls May 160,000 171,000
Jun 03 08:30 Unemployment Rate May 4.9% 5.0%
Jun 03 08:30 Hourly Earnings May 0.2% 0.3%
Jun 03 08:30 Average Workweek May NA 34.5
Jun 03 08:30 Balance of Trade Apr -$41.6B -$40.4B
Jun 03 10:00 Factory Orders Apr 1.6% 1.1%
Jun 03 10:00 ISM Services Index May 55.4 55.7

 

 

 

Upcoming Federal Reserve FOMC Meeting Schedule & Rate Hike Probability **

June 2016 14-15, (Tuesday-Wednesday)* 30% Chance
July 2016 26-27, (Tuesday-Wednesday) 62% Chance
September 2016 20-21, (Tuesday-Wednesday) * 71% Chance
November 2016 1-2, (Tuesday-Wednesday) 74% Chance
December 2016 20-21 (Tuesday-Wednesday)* 83% Chance
February 2017 01/31-02/01 (Tuesday-Wednesday)* 85% Chance

 

* Meeting associated with a Summary of Economic Projections and a press conference by the Chairman.

** Probability generated from the CME Group FedWatch tool based on the 30-day Fed Funds futures prices.

Tucson Mortgages Home Loan News 5-23-2016

By Todd Abelson NMLS #180858 on .

Weekly Review: week of May 16, 2016
Mortgage Rate Forecast with Chart
Economic Calendar – week of May 23, 2016
Federal Reserve FOMC Meeting Schedule & Current Rate Hike Probability

Weekly Review

Bond prices declined and yields rose during the week on generally positive economic news that advanced support for an interest rate hike.  Investors also sold bonds following public comments made throughout the week by a parade of Federal Reserve officials stating the case for increasing interest rates next month.

On Tuesday, San Francisco Fed President John Williams told reporters that two to three rate hikes this year “definitely still makes sense” while three to four hikes could happen in 2017.  Atlanta Fed President Dennis Lockhart said “June is live” and market expectations are more pessimistic than his forecasts as he expects first quarter GDP to be revised higher.  Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan Rate said he “expects a rate hike soon.”

Wednesday, the Federal Reserve’s FOMC minutes from their April 27 meeting were released revealing a far more “hawkish” view than many investors anticipated.  The minutes indicated the Fed is ready and willing to raise interest rates as soon as their June 15 meeting if economic data indicates stronger growth in the second quarter along with rising inflation and employment numbers.

On Thursday, New York Fed President William Dudley said “the economy could be strong enough to warrant an interest rate increase in June or July” and that he is “quite pleased to see the probability of a rate hike rising.  We are on track to satisfy a lot of the conditions for a rate increase.”  Dudley’s comments were the latest sign Wall Street may be underestimating the chances for a rate hike this summer.

In housing, the National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI) showed Builder confidence in the market for newly-built single-family homes remained unchanged in May at a level of 58, the fourth consecutive reading of 58.  The HMI components measuring sales expectations in the next six months increased three points to 65, while the component charting current sales conditions and the index measuring buyer traffic both held steady at 63 and 44, respectively.

Further, the Commerce Department reported Housing Starts increased by a greater than expected 6.6% for an annual rate of 1.172 million units while March’s Housing Starts were upwardly revised to 1.099 million from 1.089 million units.  The increase in construction of single and multi-family homes supports the outlook that the economy is regaining momentum at the beginning of the second quarter.  Building Permits increased 3.6% to a 1.116 million-unit rate in April.  Permits for the construction of single-family homes strengthened 1.5% last month, while multi-family building permits increased 8.0%.

Additionally, the National Association of Realtors released a strong Existing Home Sales report for April showing Sales increased at a 1.7% seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.45 million to exceed the consensus forecast of 5.40 million.  Also, March’s initially reported annual rate of 5.33 million was revised higher to 5.36 million.  Two major housing trends, rising prices and lower inventory, continued to impact housing.  The median existing home price increased 6.3% year-over-year to $232,500 while total housing inventory increased 9.2% to 2.14 million existing homes for sale, but inventory is still 3.6% lower from the year ago period.

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Elsewhere, the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) released their latest Mortgage Application Data for the week ending May 13th showing the overall seasonally adjusted Market Composite Index declined 1.6%.  The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index fell 6.0%, while the Refinance Index increased 1.0%.  Overall, the refinance portion of mortgage activity increased to 54.7% of total applications from 52.8%.  The adjustable-rate mortgage share of activity decreased to 5.5% from 5.7% of total applications.  According to the MBA, the average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balance remained unchanged at 3.82%.

For the week, the FNMA 3.0% coupon bond lost 53.2 basis points to end at $102.23 while the 10-year Treasury yield increased 13.9 basis points to end at 1.8436%.  Stocks ended the week with the Dow Jones Industrial Average losing 34.38 points to end at 17,500.94.  The NASDAQ Composite Index gained 51.88 points to close at 4,769.56, and the S&P 500 Index added 5.71 points to close at 2,052.32.

Year to date, and exclusive of any dividends, the Dow Jones Industrial Average has gained 0.43%, the NASDAQ Composite Index has lost 4.99%, and the S&P 500 Index has gained 0.41%.  This past week, the national average 30-year mortgage rate rose to 3.73% from 3.62% while the 15-year mortgage rate increased to 2.98% from 2.91%.  The 5/1 ARM mortgage rate rose to 3.03% from 3.02%.  FHA 30-year rates increased to 3.30% from 3.25% while Jumbo 30-year rates increased to 3.74% from 3.61%.

 

Mortgage Rate Forecast with Chart

For the week, the FNMA 30-year 3.0% coupon bond ($102.23, -53.2 bp) traded within a wider 75 basis point range between a weekly intraday high of $102.67 and a weekly intraday low of $101.92 before closing at $102.23 on Friday.

The weak technical buy signal formed on Friday, May 13 proved unreliable as bonds were sold during the week as investors responded to rate hike comments made by a number of Fed officials during the week and on stronger economic data.  The sell-off pushed the bond below several support levels until the 100-day average held on Wednesday.  Former support at the 50-day moving average now serves as nearest overhead resistance.  The slow stochastic oscillator continued to trend lower during the week, but is now flattening out just above the “oversold” line, so we may see the bond make a turn higher sometime during the coming week to challenge resistance next week.  A break above the 50-day moving average would lead to a slight improvement in interest rates.

Chart:  FNMA 30-Year 3.0% Coupon Bond

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Economic Calendar – for the Week of May 23, 2016

 

The economic calendar features several reports on housing this week along with Durable Goods Orders and the second estimate of first quarter GDP that will likely attract investor attention. Economic reports having the greatest potential impact on the financial markets are highlighted in bold.

 

Date Time

ET

Event /Report /Statistic For Market Expects Prior
May 24 10:00 New Home Sales Apr 521,000 511,000
May 25 07:00 MBA Mortgage Index 05/21 NA NA
May 25 09:00 FHFA Housing Price Index Mar NA 0.4%
May 25 10:30 Crude Oil Inventories 05/21 NA 1.310M
May 26 08:30 Initial Jobless Claims 05/21 275,000 278,000
May 26 08:30 Continuing Jobless Claims 05/14 NA 2,152K
May 26 08:30 Durable Goods Orders Apr 0.6% 0.8%
May 26 08:30 Durable Goods Orders excluding transportation Apr 0.5% -0.2%
May 26 10:00 Pending Home Sales Apr 0.6% 1.4%
May 27 08:30 2nd Estimate of 1st Qtr. GDP Qtr. 1 0.9% 0.5%
May 27 08:30 2nd Estimate of 1st Qtr. GDP Deflator Qtr. 1 0.7% 0.7%
May 27 10:00 Final Univ. of Michigan Consumer Sentiment May 95.5 95.8

 

 

 

Upcoming Federal Reserve FOMC Meeting Schedule & Rate Hike Probability **

June 2016 14-15, (Tuesday-Wednesday)* 26% Chance
July 2016 26-27, (Tuesday-Wednesday) 53% Chance
September 2016 20-21, (Tuesday-Wednesday) * 64% Chance
November 2016 1-2, (Tuesday-Wednesday) 67% Chance
December 2016 20-21 (Tuesday-Wednesday)* 80% Chance
February 2017 01/31-02/01 (Tuesday-Wednesday)* 81% Chance

 

* Meeting associated with a Summary of Economic Projections and a press conference by the Chairman.

** Probability generated from the CME Group FedWatch tool based on the 30-day Fed Funds futures prices.

Tucson Mortgages Home Loan News 5-16-2016

By Todd Abelson NMLS #180858 on .

Weekly Review: week of May 9, 2016
Mortgage Rate Forecast with Chart
Economic Calendar – week of May 16, 2016
Federal Reserve FOMC Meeting Schedule & Current Rate Hike Probability

Weekly Review

Bond prices edged higher for the week with yields modestly sinking as the stock market exhibited considerable up and down trading action in response to fluctuating crude oil prices, disappointing corporate earnings reports from the retail sector and news from China that bank lending fell sharply in April suggesting slower economic growth for the world’s second-largest economy.  Although the large-cap S&P 500 Index recorded its largest gain in two months on Tuesday, it was easily erased by declines on Wednesday and Friday.

The economic calendar was relatively light for the week.  In labor news, the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) showed job openings of 5.757 million in the month of March remained near the record high of 5.788 million set in July of 2015.  The JOLTS report is one of Fed chair Janet Yellen’s favorite measures on the health and strength of the labor market as it also includes a Quits Rate which is an indication of how confident workers are in finding new jobs if they leave their current one.  The Quits Rate for March held steady at 2%.  Overall hiring declined slightly to 5.3 million while there were 5 million total separations that included quits, layoffs and discharges.

Furthermore, in the latest sign the labor market’s expansion has cooled off, the Labor Department reported Initial Jobless Claims increased by 20,000 to 294,000 claims, the highest claims level since February 2015.  The consensus forecast had called for 270,000 claims.  The prior week’s total was unrevised at 274,000 claims.  However, the underlying trend remains consistent with healthy labor market conditions as claims have now been below the 300,000 level for 62 consecutive weeks, the longest time period since 1973.  The four-week moving average of claims increased by 10,250 to 268,250 last week from 258,000 claims.  Continuing Claims increased by 37,000 to 2.16 million during the week ended April 30, the largest increase since the end of November.

Elsewhere, the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) released their latest Mortgage Application Data for the week ending May 6th showing the overall seasonally adjusted Market Composite Index increased 0.4%.  The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index rose 0.4%, while the Refinance Index increased 0.5%.  Overall, the refinance portion of mortgage activity fell to 52.8% of total applications from 52.9%.  The adjustable-rate mortgage share of activity increased to 5.7% from 5.3% of total applications.  According to the MBA, the average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balance decreased from 3.87% to 3.82%.

Friday, the Commerce Department released a favorable Retail Sales report showing sales soared by 1.3% in April, easily exceeding the 0.3% decline recorded in March.  The consensus forecast had been for a gain of 0.8% for April.  Excluding automobiles, Retail Sales rose 0.8% in April with March sales upwardly revised to 0.4% from 0.2%.  Despite this strong Retail Sales report, the stock market posted a moderate decline.

For the week, the FNMA 3.0% coupon bond gained 1.6 basis points to end at $102.77 while the 10-year Treasury yield fell 7.5 basis points to end at 1.7018%.  Stocks ended the week with the Dow Jones Industrial Average losing 205.31 points to end at 17,535.32.  The NASDAQ Composite Index dropped 18.48 points to close at 4,717.68, and the S&P 500 Index declined 10.53 points to close at 2,046.61.

Year to date, and exclusive of any dividends, the Dow Jones Industrial Average has gained 0.63%, the NASDAQ Composite Index has lost 6.14%, and the S&P 500 Index has gained 0.13%.  This past week, the national average 30-year mortgage rate rose to 3.62% from 3.61% while the 15-year mortgage rate increased to 2.91% from 2.90%.  The 5/1 ARM mortgage rate rose to 3.02% from 3.00%.  FHA 30-year rates held steady at 3.25% and Jumbo 30-year rates increased to 3.61% from 3.59%.

Mortgage Rate Forecast with Chart

For the week, the FNMA 30-year 3.0% coupon bond ($102.77, +1.6 bp) traded within a narrower 44 basis point range between a weekly intraday high of $102.92 and a weekly of intraday low 102.48 before closing at $102.77 on Friday.

The bond ended up nearly where it began the week after undergoing a monthly coupon re-pricing after the close of trading on Tuesday.  This repricing reset the bond close to technical support provided by the 25-day moving average located at $102.49.  The bond subsequently tested this support level on Thursday before bouncing higher on Friday.  This trading action resulted in a positive stochastic crossover buy signal in the slow stochastic oscillator indicating strengthening momentum.  As a result, we may see a gradual rise into technical resistance this coming week, especially if the stock market continues to struggle.  Should this happen, mortgage rates would improve slightly.

Chart:  FNMA 30-Year 3.0% Coupon Bond

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Economic Calendar – for the Week of May 16, 2016

The economic calendar relaxes somewhat this week with just a handful of reports likely to garner much attention. Economic reports having the greatest potential impact on the financial markets are highlighted in bold.

Date Time

ET

Event /Report /Statistic For Market Expects Prior
May 16 08:30 NY Empire State Manufacturing Index May 6.2 9.6
May 16 10:00 NAHB Housing Market Index May 59 58
May 16 16:00 Net Long-Term TIC Flows Mar NA $72.0B
May 17 08:30 Consumer Price Index (CPI) Apr 0.3% 0.1%
May 17 08:30 Core CPI Apr 0.2% 0.1%
May 17 08:30 Housing Starts Apr 1,135K 1,089K
May 17 08:30 Building Permits Apr 1,130K 1,086K
May 17 09:15 Industrial Production Apr 0.2% -0.6%
May 17 09:15 Capacity Utilization Apr 75.0% 74.8%
May 18 07:00 MBA Mortgage Index 05/14 NA 0.4%
May 18 10:30 Crude Oil Inventories 05/14 NA -3.410M
May 18 14:00 FOMC Minutes Apr 27 NA  
May 19 08:30 Initial Jobless Claims 05/14 278,000 294,000
May 19 08:30 Continuing Jobless Claims 05/07 NA 2,161K
May 19 08:30 Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index May 2.7 -1.6
May 19 10:00 Index of Leading Economic Indicators Apr 0.3% 0.2%
May 20 10:00 Existing Home Sales Apr 5.40M 5.33M

 

 

Upcoming Federal Reserve FOMC Meeting Schedule & Rate Hike Probability **

June 2016 14-15, (Tuesday-Wednesday)* 4% Chance
July 2016 26-27, (Tuesday-Wednesday) 20% Chance
September 2016 20-21, (Tuesday-Wednesday) * 39% Chance
November 2016 1-2, (Tuesday-Wednesday) 43% Chance
December 2016 20-21 (Tuesday-Wednesday)* 59% Chance
February 2017 01/31-02/01 (Tuesday-Wednesday)* 62% Chance

 

* Meeting associated with a Summary of Economic Projections and a press conference by the Chairman.

** Probability generated from the CME Group FedWatch tool based on the 30-day Fed Funds futures prices.

Tucson Mortgages Home Loan News 5-9-2016

By Todd Abelson NMLS #180858 on .

Weekly Review: week of May 2, 2016
Mortgage Rate Forecast with Chart
Economic Calendar – week of May 9, 2016
Federal Reserve FOMC Meeting Schedule & Current Rate Hike Probability

Weekly Review

Bond prices rose with yields shrinking this past week on mixed economic data, a weak Employment Situation Summary for April, a decline in oil prices, and a desire by investors for less risky assets.  Meanwhile, the stock market recorded its second consecutive week of losses.

The week’s economic news was a mixed bag.  The Institute for Supply Management reported their manufacturing index slipped lower with a reading of 50.8% in April, which was a decline of 1% from the March reading and below the consensus forecast of 51.4.  Overall, the ISM Index showed the U.S. manufacturing sector has been constrained by slower global growth and the negative impact of a strong dollar on exports.

The Commerce Department reported a rebound in Construction Spending in March with a 0.3% increase, the highest level since October 2007.  While the March reading was below the consensus forecast of 0.6%, the prior month’s reading for February was revised higher from -0.5% to +1.0%.

The Factory Orders report for March showed new orders for manufactured durable goods increased 1.1% following a downwardly revised 1.9% decline in February.  Excluding transportation, factory orders rose 0.8% after declining 0.9% in February.

The Institute for Supply Management reported nonmanufacturing activity report in April increased to 55.7% versus a consensus forecast of 54.5 and was better than March’s reading of 54.5%.  Also, gains in the New Orders and Employment sub-indexes in this ISM Services Index were encouraging.

However, this encouraging news was offset by a disappointing report on private-sector job creation from ADP showing employment increased by only 156,000 jobs in April, which was well below the consensus forecast of 196,000 and March’s downwardly revised reading of 194,000.  This weakness in job creation set the stage for a feeble Employment Situation Summary from the Labor Department on Friday.

The Labor Department reported weak Nonfarm Payrolls job growth of 160,000, well below the consensus forecast of 207,000, while Nonfarm Private Payrolls were below their consensus forecast of 191,000 with just 171,000 jobs.  These were the smallest job growth numbers since last September and are below the first-quarter average job growth of 200,000 per month.  Furthermore, the job numbers for February and March were downwardly revised by 12,000 and 7,000 respectively for a total of 19,000 less jobs than originally reported.  To make matters worse, the household survey suggested an enormous 316,000 jobs were lost in April, as the total number of employed dropped from 151,320,000 to 151,004,000.

The Unemployment Rate held steady at 5.0%, but only because workers dropped out of the labor force.  The labor force participation rate fell to 62.8% and the employment-population ratio edged lower to 59.7%.  Average Hourly Earnings increased by 8 cents or 0.3% to $25.53, following an increase of 6 cents in March.  Over the year, Average Hourly Earnings have risen by 2.5%.  The Average Workweek for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls increased by 0.1 hour to 34.5 hours in April to match the consensus forecast.

In housing, CoreLogic released its Home Price Index (HPI) for March showing a +2.1% increase month-over-month and a year-over-year increase of +6.7% (including distressed sales) from March 2016 to March 2017.  CoreLogic is forecasting a 0.7% increase in home prices from March 2016 to April 2016 and a 5.3% on a year-over-year basis from March 2016 to March 2017.

Elsewhere, the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) released their latest Mortgage Application Data for the week ending April 29th showing the overall seasonally adjusted Market Composite Index decreased 3.4%.  The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index fell 0.1%, while the Refinance Index decreased 6.0%.  Overall, the refinance portion of mortgage activity decreased to 52.9% of total applications from 54.4%.  The adjustable-rate mortgage share of activity increased to 5.3% from 5.2% of total applications.  According to the MBA, the average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balance increased from 3.85% to 3.87%.

For the week, the FNMA 3.0% coupon bond gained 31.2 basis points to end at $102.75 while the 10-year Treasury yield fell 5.8 basis points to end at 1.7771%.  Stocks ended the week with the Dow Jones Industrial Average losing 33.01 points to end at 17,740.63.  The NASDAQ Composite Index dropped 39.20 points to close at 4,736.16, and the S&P 500 Index declined 8.16 points to close at 2,057.14.

Year to date, and exclusive of any dividends, the Dow Jones Industrial Average has gained 1.78%, the NASDAQ Composite Index has lost 5.73%, and the S&P 500 Index has gained 0.64%.  This past week, the national average 30-year mortgage rate fell to 3.61% from 3.67% while the 15-year mortgage rate decreased to 2.90% from 2.95%.  The 5/1 ARM mortgage rate fell to 3.00% from 3.04%.  FHA 30-year rates held steady at 3.25% and Jumbo 30-year rates dropped to 3.59% from 3.62%.

 

Mortgage Rate Forecast with Chart

For the week, the FNMA 30-year 3.0% coupon bond ($102.75, +31.2 bp) traded within a slightly wider 70 basis point range between a weekly intraday low of $102.25 and a weekly intraday high of 102.95 before closing at $102.75 on Friday.

After showing weakness last Monday when the Commonwealth of Puerto Rico defaulted on a $422 million debt service payment, mortgage bonds bounced back on Tuesday through Thursday before being slowed on Friday by a modestly stronger stock market.  The week’s greatest potential catalyst for a major market move was Friday’s Employment Situation Summary for April.

However, this failed to materialize as traders appeared to be unsure how to respond to the rather weak employment report as shown by a Spinning Top candlestick.  This candle is often regarded as a market-neutral sign and is used to signal indecision about the future direction of the underlying asset, in this case mortgage bonds.

Technical support continues at the 25-day moving average located at $102.50 while overhead resistance remains at $103.00.  The slow stochastic oscillator is now reaching into “overbought” territory suggesting the bond may be running out of upward momentum and will have a tougher time breaking above resistance.

If the bond continues to be turned away from resistance this coming week, we may see a slight worsening in mortgage rates, but if it somehow manages to break above this level, we should see a slight improvement in rates.  However, from a purely technical perspective at this moment in time, there is greater likelihood for a retreat from resistance with lower prices than a breakout above resistance with higher prices and lower rates.

 

Chart:  FNMA 30-Year 3.0% Coupon Bond
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Economic Calendar – for the Week of May 09, 2016

The economic calendar relaxes somewhat this week with just a handful of reports likely to garner much attention. Economic reports having the greatest potential impact on the financial markets are highlighted in bold.

Date Time

ET

Event /Report /Statistic For Market Expects Prior
May 10 10:00 JOLTS – Job Openings Mar NA 5.445M
May 10 10:00 Wholesale Inventories Mar 0.2% -0.5%
May 11 07:00 MBA Mortgage Index 05/07 NA -3.4%
May 11 10:30 Crude Oil Inventories 05/07 NA 2.784M
May 11 14:00 Treasury Budget Apr NA $156.7B
May 12 08:30 Initial Jobless Claims 05/07 270,000 274,000
May 12 08:30 Continuing Jobless Claims 04/30 NA 2,121K
May 12 08:30 Import Prices excluding oil Apr NA -0.1%
May 12 08:30 Export Prices excluding agriculture Apr NA 0.3%
May 13 08:30 Producer Price Index (PPI) Apr 0.3% -0.1%
May 13 08:30 Core Producer Price Index Apr 0.1% -0.1%
May 13 08:30 Retail Sales Apr 0.8% -0.3%
May 13 08:30 Retail Sales excluding automobile sales Apr 0.5% 0.2%
May 13 10:00 Business Inventories Mar 0.2% -0.1%
May 13 10:00 Univ. of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index May 90.0 89.7

 

 

 

Upcoming Federal Reserve FOMC Meeting Schedule & Rate Hike Probability **

June 2016 14-15, (Tuesday-Wednesday)* 13% Chance
July 2016 26-27, (Tuesday-Wednesday) 30% Chance
September 2016 20-21, (Tuesday-Wednesday) * 42% Chance
November 2016 1-2, (Tuesday-Wednesday) 45% Chance
December 2016 20-21 (Tuesday-Wednesday)* 61% Chance
February 2017 01/31-02/01 (Tuesday-Wednesday)* 63% Chance

 

* Meeting associated with a Summary of Economic Projections and a press conference by the Chairman.

** Probability generated from the CME Group FedWatch tool based on the 30-day Fed Funds futures prices.

 

Tucson Mortgages Home Loan News 5-1-2016

By Todd Abelson NMLS #180858 on .

Weekly Review: week of April 18, 2016
Mortgage Rate Forecast with Chart
Economic Calendar – week of April 25, 2016
Federal Reserve FOMC Meeting Schedule & Current Rate Hike Probability

Weekly Review

The major stock market indexes turned in a mixed performance for the week with the Dow Industrials gaining 0.59%, the S&P 500 Index advancing 0.52%, and the NASDAQ Composite Index losing 0.65%.  Crude oil reached its highest price level for 2016 during the week to provide a lift for energy sector stocks.  First quarter corporate earnings news and higher oil prices were the greatest influences on the stock market for the week.

Bond prices retreated and yields rose again this week as an overall positive tone in global equities sparked investor enthusiasm for higher-risk assets.  Housing reports were mixed with the National Association of Home Builders’ Housing Market Index missing its forecast while Housing Starts and Building Permits fell sharply in March.  However, March Existing Home Sales rebounded nicely.

The National Association of Home Builders’ Housing Market Index, a measure of homebuilder sentiment, was reported unchanged from March with a reading of 58 for April, just missing the forecast of 59.  It was the third straight month the Index recorded a reading of 58 showing consistent, steady expansion.

The Commerce Department reported Housing Starts and Building Permits both declined more than anticipated in March.  Housing Starts dropped 8.8% to a seasonally adjusted rate of 1.089 million while Building Permits declined 7.7% at an annualized rate of 1.086 million.  The consensus forecasts had called for 1.170 million Starts and 1.200 million Permits.  However, both Starts and Permits were revised higher for February with Housing Starts revised to 1.194 million from 1,178 million while Housing Permits were revised to 1.177 million from 1.167 million.

Starts on single-family homes fell 9.2% to a rate of 764,000, the lowest since October.  However, the prior month of February saw single-family starts reach their highest level since October 2007.  The weakness seen in Housing Starts may be due to accelerated home building as an outcome of a warmer than average winter.  However, homes under construction increased to 990,000 in March from 985,000 in February.

image3

The National Association of Realtors reported Existing Home Sales rebounded in March, boosted by strong sales in the Midwest and Northeast regions.  Existing Home Sales jumped 5.1%, to a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 5.33 million units from a downwardly revised 5.07 million in February.  The median existing-home price for all housing types in March increased 5.7% to $222,700 from $210,700 in March 2015.  The March home price increase resulted in the 49th consecutive month of year-over-year gains.  Housing inventory for March grew 5.9% to 1.98 million existing homes for sale, 1.5% lower than the 2.01 million available for sale a year ago.  At the current sales rate, unsold inventory is at a 4.5 month supply, an increase from the 4.4 month supply in February.

image4

Additionally, the Federal Housing Finance Agency’s (FHFA) Housing Price Index increased 0.4% for February to match the consensus forecast.  Compared to the year ago monthly period, house prices have increased 5.6%.  The prior month’s reading for January was revised lower to 0.4% from 0.5%. The FHFA reported tight inventories and strong housing demand are helping to drive home prices higher.

In the world of mortgages, the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) released their latest Mortgage Application Data for the week ending April 16th showing the overall seasonally adjusted Market Composite Index increased 1.3%.  The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index fell 1.0%, while the Refinance Index increased 3.0%.  Overall, the refinance portion of mortgage activity increased to 55.4% of total applications from 54.9%.  The adjustable-rate mortgage share of activity was unchanged at 5.0%.  According to the MBA, the average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balance increased from 3.82% to 3.83% with 0.32 points paid.

For the week, the FNMA 3.0% coupon bond lost 59.4 basis points to end at $102.03 while the 10-year Treasury yield increased 13.8 basis points to end at 1.8913%.  Stocks ended the week with the Dow Jones Industrial Average gaining 106.29 points to end at 18,003.75.  The NASDAQ Composite Index lost 31.99 points to close at 4,906.23, and the S&P 500 Index advanced 10.85 points to close at 2,091.58.

Year to date, and exclusive of any dividends, the Dow Jones Industrial Average has gained 3.21%, the NASDAQ Composite Index has lost 2.06%, and the S&P 500 Index has gained 2.28%.  This past week, the national average 30-year mortgage rate rose to 3.75% from 3.64% while the 15-year mortgage rate increased to 3.02% from 2.94%.  The 5/1 ARM mortgage rate rose to 3.00% from 2.97%.  FHA 30-year rates edged higher to 3.35% from 3.25% and Jumbo 30-year rates increased to 3.66% from 3.58%.

Mortgage Rate Forecast with Chart

For the week, the FNMA 30-year 3.0% coupon bond ($102.03, -59.4 bp) traded within a wider 72 basis point range between a weekly intraday low of $102.00 and a weekly intraday high of 102.72 before closing at $102.03 on Friday.

The bond failed to respond to a bullish buy signal at the end of the prior week and resumed its downward trend during this past week while plunging below several key support levels on Wednesday as the stock market gained strength throughout the session.  Wednesday’s trading resulted in a two-day bearish engulfing lines candlestick pattern, a moderately strong sell signal.  This sell signal was confirmed with a strong negative stochastic crossover in the slow stochastic oscillator.  Furthermore, the bond also fell below its 25-day and 50-day moving averages.  These levels now serve as nearest resistance.

The bond continued lower on Thursday and Friday with small downward gaps or “falling windows.”  The slow stochastic oscillator continues to trend lower but has not yet reached “oversold” status indicating we could still see further price weakness in the near-term, and should this happen mortgage rates could worsen slightly.  Support is now found at the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level at $101.78 while the 50-day moving average at $102.28 remains as overhead resistance.

If the stock market regains its positive footing in the coming week on more favorable than anticipated corporate earnings news, we could see bond prices slip a little lower with yields rising and mortgage rates worsening slightly.  However, there is also the potential for disappointing earnings and economic news and a Federal Reserve monetary policy statement that could provide a lift for bond prices and an improvement in mortgage rates.

Chart:  FNMA 30-Year 3.0% Coupon Bond

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Economic Calendar – for the Week of April 25, 2016

The economic calendar this week features reports on Housing, Inflation, 1st Quarter GDP, and the Federal Reserve’s latest monetary policy decision.  Other reports of interest include weekly Initial Jobless Claims, Crude Oil Inventories, and Personal Income and Spending.  Economic reports having the greatest potential impact on the financial markets are highlighted in bold.

Date Time

ET

Event /Report /Statistic For Market Expects Prior
Apr 25 10:00 New Home Sales Mar 521,000 512,000
Apr 26 08:30 Durable Goods Orders Mar 1.7% -2.8%
Apr 26 08:30 Durable Goods excluding transportation Mar 0.5% -1.0%
Apr 26 09:00 Case-Shiller 20-city Index Feb 5.6% 5.7%
Apr 26 10:00 Consumer Confidence Index Apr NA 96.2
Apr 27 07:00 MBA Mortgage Index 04/23 NA NA
Apr 27 10:00 Pending Home Sales Mar 0.3% 3.5%
Apr 27 10:30 Crude Oil Inventories 04/23 NA 2.08M
Apr 27 14:00 FOMC Interest Rate Decision Apr 0.5% 0.5%
Apr 28 08:30 Advance 1st Quarter GDP 1st Qtr. 0.9% 1.4%
Apr 28 08:30 Advance 1st Quarter Chain Deflator 1st Qtr. 0.6% 0.9%
Apr 28 08:30 Initial Jobless Claims 04/23 259,000 247,000
Apr 28 08:30 Continuing Jobless Claims 04/16 NA 2,137,000
Apr 29 08:30 Employment Cost Index 1st Qtr. 0.3% 0.2%
Apr 29 08:30 PCE Prices Mar 0.2% 0.1%
Apr 29 08:30 Personal Income Mar 0.1% 0.1%
Apr 29 08:30 Personal Spending Mar 0.6% 0.6%
Apr 29 09:45 Chicago PMI Apr 53.3 53.6
Apr 29 10:00 Final Univ. of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Apr 90.0 89.7

 

 

 

Upcoming Federal Reserve FOMC Meeting Schedule & Rate Hike Probability **

April 2016 26-27, (Tuesday-Wednesday) 2% Chance
June 2016 14-15, (Tuesday-Wednesday)* 21% Chance
July 2016 26-27, (Tuesday-Wednesday) 36% Chance
September 2016 20-21, (Tuesday-Wednesday) * 47% Chance
November 2016 1-2, (Tuesday-Wednesday) 52% Chance
December 2016 20-21 (Tuesday-Wednesday)* 66% Chance
February 2017 01/31-02/01 (Tuesday-Wednesday)* 68% Chance

* Meeting associated with a Summary of Economic Projections and a press conference by the Chairman.

** Probability generated from the CME Group FedWatch tool based on the 30-day Fed Funds futures prices.

 

How to use TRID to help you buy a home

By Todd Abelson NMLS #180858 on .

TRID_rules

OK – TRID IS HERE AND GUESS WHAT? THE SUN ROSE THIS MORNING!

How to use TRID to help you buy a home

Now what?

First, what IS TRID? It stands for Truth-in-Lending RESPA Integrated Disclosure

What does is do? It provides two key features:

1) a newly designed, easy to understand pair of multi-page disclosures … called the “Loan Estimate” and the “Closing Disclosure” which replace the traditional HUD-1 (settlement statement), Good Faith Estimate, and Truth-in-Lending Disclosures.

2) provides the consumer with guaranteed time-frames in which to shop service providers AND have their fees guaranteed (within certain tolerances).

How does it work? Using the maximum time allowed, once a Buyer is under contract they have 10-days to shop for their Lender by formally applying for a loan. Each Lender then has up to 3-days to send a “Loan Estimate” thereby totaling 13-days which could be CONSUMED by shopping. At the conclusion of the loan process the Lender must submit a “Closing Disclosure” to the Buyers with final figures at least 3-days prior to when a Buyer can sign loan documents. Assuming no additional delays, this process CAN add up to a total of 16-days NOT INCLUDING SUNDAYS!!!

The question which has been posed to me by Buyer/Consumer & Realtor alike is “HOW THE HECK DO WE CLOSE A PURCHASE IN THE TRADITIONAL 30-DAY TIME-FRAME?” The answer below is EASY!

1. PLAN TO SHOP FOR LENDERS BEFORE SHOPPING FOR YOUR HOME. Select your finalists (if you end up with more than 1)

2. ELECT TO VOLUNTARILY PROVIDE YOUR SELECTED LENDERS WITH ALL FINANCIAL DOCUMENTS UP-FRONT. While Federal law prevents a Lender from REQUIRING documentation prior to issuing the up-front “Loan Estimate”, doing so will not only strengthen your Offer but will make the loan process proceed faster.

3. ACKNOWLEDGE RECEIPT OF ALL DISCLOSURES IMMEDIATELY. Remember that all of the “clocks” in TRID begin once the Borrower acknowledges receipt.

4. PICK A SOLID RECORDING DATE AND STICK WITH IT. With the new requirement for a 3-day waiting period prior-to-signing final loan documents after receipt of the “Closing Disclosure” has been acknowledged, any last minute changes moving up the recordation date could be problematic.

5. MAKE SURE YOUR LENDER HAS ALL ADDENDUM’S CONTAINING PRICE CHANGES AND/OR SELLER CONCESSIONS. Doing so will expedite issuing the final “Closing Disclosure” and eliminate the need for subsequent versions (which will reset the 3-day clock).

Remember – solid teamwork with your Knowledgeable Mortgage Professional will result is smooth closings and happy people. WE PROMISE!!

If you’re a Consumer check out the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau’s ‘know before your owe’ website for more info.

If you’re a Real Estate Professional check the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau’s Recommendations for more info.