The story behind the headline was sourced from the Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey, am industry-wide mortgage rate poll of more than 100 lenders. The PMMS has reported mortgage rate data to markets since 1971 and is the largest of its kind.
Unfortunately, Tucson rate shoppers can’t rely on it.
See, unlike governments and private-sector firms, when consumers are in need mortgage rate information, they need the information delivered in real-time; for making decisions on-the-spot. Consumers need to know what rates are doing right now.
The Freddie Mac survey can’t offer that.
According to Freddie Mac, the survey’s methodology is to collect mortgage rates from lenders between Monday and Wednesday and to publish that data Thursday morning. The survey results are an average of all reported mortgage rates. The problem is that mortgage rates change all day, every day. The PMMS results are skewed, therefore, by methodology.
And, meanwhile, the issue was compounded last week because mortgage rates shot higher Wednesday afternoon — after the survey had “closed”. The market deterioration ran into Thursday, too — again, unable to be captured by Freddie Mac’s PMMS.
Although the newspapers reported mortgage rates down last week, they weren’t. Conforming mortgage rates were higher by at least 1/8 percent, or roughly $11 per $100,000 borrowed per month. In some cases, rates were up by even more.
Newspapers and websites can give a lot of good information, but pricing is far too fluid to rely on a reporter. When you need to know what mortgage rates are doing in real-time, make sure you’re talking to a loan officer. Otherwise, you may just be getting yesterday’s news.
Best way is to just give Todd Abelson and Tyler Ford a call at 520-331-LEND (5363).
Mortgage markets had a terrible, holiday-shortened week last week as Wall Street responded to worse-than-expected inflation data and action from the Federal Reserve. Mortgage bonds sold off with force, causing mortgage rates to rise for the second week in a row.
Last week was a bad week to float a mortgage, to say the least. Rates in Tucson rose by the largest margin in any week since late-2009.
The two biggest stories from last week both came from the Federal Reserve. The first was the release of the FOMC January meeting minutes which showed more confidence in the U.S. economy than Wall Street expected, and the second was the Fed’s surprise announcement to raise the nation’s Discount Rate to 0.75%. Both sparked risk-taking on Wall Street and bonds sold-off as a result.
Now, the Fed Funds Rate won’t climb anytime soon and neither will Prime Rate, but the Fed has sent a clear message to the markets — The Era of Loose Monetary Policy is over.
This week, there’s a lot of economic data set for release.
Tuesday : Case-Shiller Home Price Index, Consumer Confidence
Wednesday : New Home Sales
Thursday : FHFA Home Price Index, Initial Jobless Claims
Friday : Existing Home Sales, Personal Consumption Expenditures
With markets already on edge, any better-than-expected results should be bad for mortgage rates.
After last week’s performance, conforming mortgage rates for residents of Arizona have now unwound most their January gains. If you’re waiting for the right time to lock, it may have been 2 weeks ago. Consider locking in this week to protect against any further deterioration in price.
Based to the headlines, the housing market looks poised for rapid growth through the Spring Market.
The real story, though, is that although Housing Starts increased by close to 3 percent last month, the growth is mostly attributed to buildings with 5 or more units. This includes apartments and condominiums — a sector of the housing market that’s notoriously volatile.
If we isolate Housing Starts for single-family homes only, we see that starts grew by just 7,000 units last month and have failed to break a range since June 2009. January’s tally is slightly below the 8-month average.
Perhaps more interesting than the Housing Starts, though, is the Commerce Department’s accompanying data for Housing Permits. After a 5-month plateau that ended in November, Housing Permits posted multi-year highs for the second straight month.
One reason permits are up is that home builders want to capitalize on the federal homebuyer tax credit’s dwindling time frame. Sales are expected to spike in March and April and more homes will come online to deal with that demand. Home buyers in Tucson should shop carefully, but with an eye on the clock.
As the tax credit’s April 30, 2010 deadline approaches, competition for homes may be fierce.
Mortgage markets reeled Wednesday after the Federal Reserve released the minutes from its January 26-27, 2010 meeting. Mortgage rates in Arizona are now at their highest levels since the start of the year.
The Fed Minutes is a follow-up document, delivered 3 weeks after an official FOMC meeting. It’s a companion piece to the post-meeting press release, detailing the debates and discussions that shaped our central bankers’ policy decisions.
The Minutes is a terrific look into the Fed’s collective mind and, yesterday, Wall Street didn’t like what it saw. Specifically, the report disclosed that:
The Fed plans to break support for mortgage markets after March 31, 2010
Raising the Fed Funds Rate will be a key part of the Fed’s strategy to tighten monetary policy
The fundamentals behind consumer spending strengthened modestly
Furthermore, the Fed Minutes said that there is a growing risk of “higher medium-term inflation”. Inflation, of course, is awful for mortgage rates.
Overall, the Fed’s economic optimism appeared stronger after its January meeting as compared to its December one. A stronger economy should lead to better job growth and higher home prices throughout 2010.
Mortgage rates were up yesterday but they remain historically low. And many analysts think that after March 31, 2010, rates will rise even more. Therefore, if you’re buying a home in the near-term, or know you’ll need a new mortgage, consider moving up your time frame.
Every 1/8 percent makes a difference in your household budget.
Now, your daily commute may not be as long, but time spent in cars, trains and buses is time away from work and from family. Drive-time can affect a person’s Quality of Life and it’s one reason why Forbes Magazine’s Best and Worst Commutes is worth reviewing.
Measuring travel time, road congestion and travel delays in the 60 largest metropolitan areas, Forbes ranks city commutes from best-to-worst with Salt Lake City topping the list and Tampa-St. Petersburg finishing it.
The Top 5 Commutes, as compiled by Forbes:
Salt Lake City, Utah
Buffalo-Niagara Falls, New York
Rochester, New York
Milwaukee-Waukesha-West Allis, Wisconsin
Albany-Schenectady-Troy, New York
The bottom 5 are Tampa-St. Petersburg, Detroit, Atlanta, Orlando, and Dallas-Forth Worth.
Long commutes shouldn’t deter you from moving to a particular city, but the potential commute should be consideration. Before making an offer on your next home, make a rush-hour commute to work from your potential new neighborhood. Then imagine doing it every day.
Mortgage markets worsened last week on general profit-taking in the U.S. bond market, combined with talk of a coordinated rescue effort for Greece and its debt burden. Mortgage-backed bonds sold off, causing conventional and FHA mortgage rates to rise.
There wasn’t much hard data on which to trade last week, either, so momentum took markets farther than they otherwise might have moved on their own. It marked the first time in 5 weeks that rates rose for Arizona rate shoppers.
This week, data returns. Expect mortgage market movement.
Some of the week’s more important releases include:
Housing Starts and Building Permits (Wednesday)
The release of the last month’s FOMC Minutes (Wednesday)
Business and consumer inflation figures (Thursday and Friday)
Inclement weather may have impacted last month’s Housing Starts reading so pay closer attention to Building Permits. Permits precede actual construction and can be more indicative of economic optimism. If permit readings are strong, it should be a negative for mortgage rates.
The same is true for the FOMC Minutes.
Last month’s FOMC post-meeting press-release was decidedly middle-of-the-road, but the statement is just a summary of the Fed’s 2-day meeting, boiled down to a few paragraphs. Wednesday’s release of the FOMC Minutes will reveal the deeper discussions among members of the Fed. Wall Street will mine it for clues about the future of the economy.
If Wall Street senses optimism coming from the Fed — again — mortgage rates should rise.
And, lastly, keep an eye on Thursday and Friday’s inflation data. Inflation is bad for mortgage rates so a higher-than-expected reading should spark a bond market sell-off.
Since mid-December, mortgage rates have moved within a tight range and there’s little reason for rates will break this range this week. However, we are near the top of the channel. If you know you’re going to need a rate locked soon, it’s probably best to do early in the week.
Consumer Sentiment has been on the rise since last February and it’s something to which Tucson home buyers should pay attention.
The affordability of your next home may hinge on consumer confidence.
As the economy recovers from a near-the-brink recession, many of the elements of a full recovery are in place. Business investment is returning, household spending is expanding, and financial systems are gaining strength.
What’s missing from the recovery, though, is jobs growth. Another net 20,000 jobs were lost in January. Data like that hinders economic growth.
That said, twenty-thousand jobs lost is a much better figure than the several hundred thousand that were shed per month throughout early-2009, but it’s still a net negative number. Not only does household income drop when Americans lose jobs but so does the average American’s confidence in his or her own economic future.
This is one reason why jobs growth is so closely watched by Wall Street — jobs are linked to higher confidence levels which, in turn, is believed to spur consumer spending.
Consumer spending represents 70% of the U.S. economy.
As confidence rises, it could be good news for the economy, but bad news for home buyers. More spending expands the economy and, all things equal, that leads mortgage rates higher.
Same for home prices. More confidence means more buyers which, in turn, squeezes the supply-and-demand curve in favor of sellers.
Later this morning, the University of Michigan will release its February Consumer Sentiment survey. If the reading is higher-than-expected, prepare for mortgage rates to rise and home affordability to worsen.
Brought to you by Todd Abelson and Tyler Ford of Sunstreet Mortgage – Tucson, AZ
Courtesy of Mortgage Success Source, Mortgage Market Guide, Nick Mallory and Dustin Hughes.
This is by far, the single best explanation of HOW mortgage interest rates are determined and WHY they are going up. 7 minutes of EXCELLENT information – do yourself a favor, listen and share this with anyone considering buy a home or refinancing an existing mortgage.
Call Todd Abelson and Tyler Ford at Sunstreet Mortgage in Tucson, Arizona for all your mortgage needs! 520-331-LEND
Foreclosures stories dominate the national housing news. It seems at least one foreclosure-related story makes its way to the front page or the nightly news every week.
But for as much as the foreclosure filing statistics can be astounding — over 300,000 homes were served last month alone — the prevalence of foreclosures depends on where you live.
As reported by RealtyTrac, just 4 states accounted for more than half of the country’s foreclosure-related activity last month.
California : 22.7 percent of all activity
Florida : 14.9 percent of all activity
Arizona : 6.7 percent of all activity
Illinois : 5.7 percent of all activity
The other 46 states (and Washington D.C.) claimed the remaining 49.9%.
However, just because foreclosures are concentrated geographically, that doesn’t make them less important to homebuyers in Tucson and around the country. There’s been more than 1.4 million foreclosure filings in the last 12 months and that’s a figure that can’t be ignored.
Therefore, if you’re in the market for a foreclosed home, here’s a few things to keep in mind.
Properties are usually sold “as-is” and may not be up to living standards. Be sure to physically inspect the home before buying it.
Buying a home from a bank is rarely as streamlined as buying from an individual homeowner. Be prepared for delays and long closings.
Foreclosures aren’t always listed for sale publicly. Ask your real estate agent how to access the complete foreclosure inventory.
In order to use the federal homebuyer tax credit, you must be under contract for a home by April 30, 2010 and closed by June 30, 2010. That doesn’t leave much time to find a bank-owned home and make it to closing. If you’re serious about buying foreclosures, it’s probably best to start your search soon.