Homeowners Rejoice! New Homes Sales Data Is Weak.

By Todd Abelson NMLS #180858 on .

New Home Sales are down because there was less supply on the market

If you only read headlines this past week, you may have missed two very important points.

The first story relates to Housing Starts.  Housing Starts measure the number of new homes entering the construction phase.  The headline blared “Housing starts plunge to 16-year low”.

If you are a homeowner, this is terrific news. 

Because home values are governed by Supply and Demand, fewer homes built means that home demand has a chance to rebalance against home supply. 

This places upward pressure on home prices nationwide.

When Housing Starts drop, it says more about weakness in builder sentiment that it does about the state of the housing nationwide.  Housing Starts are at all-time lows because builders want to sell the product they have before putting more product on the market.

The second story was yesterday’s New Home Sales figures.

The headline read that “US new-home sales slide in record plunge” but, again, let’s look a little deeper.

New Home Sales are defined as homes that are newly built.  Stated differently, it specifically counts the number of homes sold that were once classified as “Housing Starts”.

If Housing Starts falls, therefore, we can expect New Home Sales to fall, too.  The two data points count the same housing inventory at two different points along a timeline.

These two stories are related but neither should be construed as bad news.  As builders cut back on the supply of homes, it should create an increase in relative demand.

For homeowners, this is a positive development.

(Image courtesy: New York Times)

The Week In Review (January 28, 2008) : What To Watch For

By Todd Abelson NMLS #180858 on .

Consumer Confidence plunged at the end of 2007

Mortgage rates change from day-to-day, but last week’s volatility was a record-breaker. 

After drooping through Tuesday and then skyrocketing Wednesday and Thursday, mortgage rates retreated slightly on Friday. 

By weeks’ end, rates were at their same levels from mid-December.

This is in contrast to Tuesday, just after the Fed’s rate cut and before the stock market rally.  Mortgage rates had been touching near four-year lows for some home loan products.

This week could be equally hectic because heavy economic data it hitting the wires, and because the Federal Open Market Committee is meeting.

The major activity gets started Tuesday with the Consumer Confidence report. 

Markets care about this survey because recessions tend to be self-fulfilling prophecies — if people believe it will happen, it generally does.  Therefore, if average Americans are feeling worse about the economy, it may cause stocks to sell-off to the benefit of mortgage rates. 

Notice from the graph above how confidence plunged through the second half of last year. (more…)

So-called “No Cost Loans” where is the catch?

By Todd Abelson NMLS #180858 on .

There’s a lot of marketing out there to help make some loan-jockey’s phone ring but nothing brings them in faster than the “no cost loan”. I’ve got news for everyone and it’s a secret no one will share with you: There’s no such thing as a no cost loan!

I’ve been in the mortgage business for 13 years and I pay closing costs on my own loans! The last time I checked, neither the Title Company, the Appraiser, nor the Credit Reporting Agencies worked for free. So where does this alleged “no cost loan” jargon come from? I’ve developed and simple yet strikingly easy chart to explain the process.

triangle

In a nutshell, there are only three variables to consider: Loan Amount, Interest Rate, and Cash in/out. Assuming you agree there are in fact closing costs to deal with, you get to pick two sides and the remaining side defines how your costs will be handled.

Examples

1. LOAN AMOUNT: You can increase the loan amount if you have enough equity to roll all the closing costs into your loan; doing so allows you to bring in NO cash at closing. Hence the words ‘no cost loan.’

2. INTEREST RATE: If you want the lowest rate, there will be extra fees called origination fees or discount points. If you’re willing to accept a higher rate, it will be used to cover some or all of the closing costs.

3. CASH: If you’re willing to pay closing costs in cash at closing, you can get the lowest rate and/or loan amount.

(more…)

How The Stock Market Rally Was Terrible For Mortgage Rates

By Todd Abelson NMLS #180858 on .

The Dow Jones Industrial Average surged 631.86 points in the last three hours of trading yesterday as traders piled into equities

The Dow Jones Industrial Average surged 631.86 points in the last three hours of trading yesterday as traders piled into equities.

Fueling the rally?  The bond market. 

For as much as stocks gained today, bonds lost.  Including mortgage bonds.  The dramatic sell-off created a huge swing in mortgage rates and erased nearly all of 2008’s rate improvements.

This is one reason why it pays to be aware of your home loan.  That way, when markets change and a doorway to payment reduction opens, you can quickly step through it. 

As yesterday illustrated, with mortgage rates, opportunity is often fleeting.

With stocks poised to rise again today, it should likely happen at the expense of bonds.  Mortgage rates are trending higher, too.

(Image courtesy: The Wall Street Journal Online)

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Why Mortgage Rates Didn’t Fall More When The Fed Made A Surprise 0.750% Rate Cut

By Todd Abelson NMLS #180858 on .

This simplified analogy is similar to what happened yesterday, post-rate cut.  It's why many people that expected rates to fall further were dissappointed.In a surprise move yesterday, the Federal Reserve cut the benchmark Fed Funds Rate by three-quarters of a percent.  Mortgage rates fell only slightly as the surprise quickly wore off.

To understand how the element of surprise works in mortgage markets, think about a Jack-in-the-Box. 

Everybody knows that the clown is coming, they just don’t know how many turns of the crank it will take.  When it pops out, there’s an immediate shock.  Then it’s back to business.

This simplified analogy is similar to what happened yesterday, post-rate cut.  It’s why many people that expected rates to fall further were dissappointed. (more…)

It’s A Good Day To Have Your Mortgage Adjust

By Todd Abelson NMLS #180858 on .

(New Interest Rate) = (Index) + (Margin)

When the Federal Reserve lowered the Fed Funds Rate by 0.75% yesterday, it was in response to economic weakness that mounted since its last meeting December 11, 2007.

By contrast, the mortgage markets meet every day

Because of this, mortgage rates had already “priced in” the weakness to which the Fed was reacting. 

This is why mortgage rates did not fall by the same 0.75% yesterday — they only fell slightly. (more…)

Federal Reserve’s surprise 0.750% rate cut this morning 1/22/2008

By Todd Abelson NMLS #180858 on .

 chart

As promised, last week was heavy on data and on drama.  And mortgage rates continued their slide lower. 

This week, by contrast, is devoid of data and markets are already digesting the Federal Reserve’s surprise 0.750% rate cut this morning. 

Mortgage rates are falling in response, but not because of what the Fed did as much as what the Fed implied by doing it.

The Federal Reserve does not control mortgage rates, per se, but it does exert an influence.  This is because when the Federal Open Market Committee makes changes to the Fed Funds Rate, it is making a broader statement about the health of the economy.

This morning, and in advance of its 2-day meeting January 29-30, the Federal Reserve chopped the Fed Funds Rate by 75 basis points to 3.500%.  This signals to markets that the Federal Reserve is keen on engineering a soft landing for the economy.

(more…)